Posted on: 12/05/2023
A large and growing body of literature in recent years has pointed to third grade as one of the most critical milestones in a child’s educational journey. Study after study has identified third grade proficiency scores as a strong predictor of both short- and long-term outcomes. Academic performance in later grades, high school completion outcomes, postsecondary enrollment, and even long-term earning potential have all been tied to proficiency in the third grade.1 As expressed in a recent report by the Annie E Casey Foundation, proficiency in third grade can be a “make or break benchmark in a child’s educational development.”2 Longitudinal data play a key role in building our understanding of these relationships and in this study we leveraged the Kentucky Longitudinal Data System (KLDS) to explore how third grade proficiency in Kentucky is related to outcomes later in life.
Using the extensive data available through the KLDS, we examined data for several cohorts of Kentucky third graders’ proficiency scores. Specifically, we followed students who took the third-grade assessment in math and reading during the 2008 (the earliest year of relevant data available in the KLDS) through 2011 academic years to assess their academic and employment outcomes over the subsequent eleven-year period.3 To do this, we explored the relationship between third grade proficiency scores and:
The four cohorts in our analysis included a total of 200,000 students who took the reading and mathematics state assessment in the third grade. Amongst this group, about 63,000 (32%) did not meet proficiency in at least one subject area, approximately 148,000 (74%) were identified as eligible for FRL at some point while in school, and about 158,000 (80%) were white. This article will further detail how third grade proficiency differs amongst key demographic groups and the degree to which it is associated with long-term academic and life outcomes.
The gap in educational performance was still seen eight years after third grade, with students who had met proficiency in both subjects earning higher ACT scores than those who did not meet proficiency in at least one subject in third grade. When looking at students’ lunch status, clear differences emerged. Those students who were eligible for FRL had a lower ACT composite score (18.3) compared to those never on FRL (22.5).
There were also large differences between groups in the percentage of students taking the ACT exam. Over 83% of students who were proficient in both subjects in the third grade and never eligible for FRL took the 11th grade ACT. That compares to 66% of students who were not proficient in both third grade subjects and were FRL status. It is important to note that many of the students not taking the ACT in the 11th grade showed no enrollment data for 11th grade which could be due to a variety of reasons including but not limited to transfers to home or private schools, moving out of state, or dropping out.
Previous research has shown that children who are not reading proficiently by the end of third grade fail to graduate from high school on time at a rate four times greater than that of students who were reading proficiently. Evidence also shows that gaps in on-time high school completion can be exacerbated by other factors. One study showed, for example, that 35% of children who were poor, lived in neighborhoods of concentrated poverty, and were not reading proficiently by the end of third grade failed to graduate high school on time.6
In our analysis, graduation rates varied heavily depending on FRL status and third grade proficiency. On the high-end, 84% of non-FRL students who were proficient in both subjects in third grade graduated from a public Kentucky high school. Alternatively, 71% of FRL students who were not proficient in at least one subject in third grade graduated from high school.
We also saw differences between groups in on-time graduation rates and once again, both proficiency and FRL status seemed to play a role. We observed larger differences in the percentage of students who graduated high school on time or not based on proficiency scores in third grade. For example, there was a 6.1 percentage point gap in on-time vs anytime graduation rates for FRL students who were not proficient in at least one subject. That compares to a difference in on-time graduation rate of 2.8 percentage points for FRL students who were proficient in both subjects. Again, this could be due to a variety of reasons including but not limited to transfers to home or private schools, moving out of state, or dropping out.
Previous research has demonstrated a strong relationship between third grade academic outcomes, particularly in reading proficiency, and enrollment in postsecondary education.7 In this study we examined the postsecondary enrollment patterns of our cohorts of interest and found a similar relationship between third grade proficiency and college-going behavior in Kentucky.
In total, there were more than 155,000 students from the four cohorts in this study who eventually graduated from a Kentucky public high school. Over sixty percent of those high school graduates went on to enroll in a postsecondary institution within five years and of that group, 92% enrolled in the first year following high school graduation. Like previous measures, those who were proficient in both subjects in third grade and never eligible for FRL were the most likely to enroll in postsecondary education with 87% having enrolled; 50 percentage points higher than those that were not proficient in at least one subject and FRL status (37%).
Beyond enrollment, we also examined patterns in postsecondary completion. In this case we restricted analyses to the 2008 third grade cohort. We did this to allow as much time as possible for students to graduate from high school, enroll in postsecondary education, and earn a credential. Again, we saw that patterns in postsecondary attainment differed based on third grade proficiency and lunch status. Forty-six percent of non-FRL students who were proficient in both subjects in 2008 and enrolled in postsecondary completed a bachelor’s degree or higher by 2022. That is double or more the rate for all other groups in this study. At the same time, more than four out of five (82%) of FRL students who were not proficient in at least one subject and enrolled in postsecondary did not complete a postsecondary credential by 2022. In this case, students who were proficient in both subjects and FRL status attained postsecondary credentials at similar rates to non-FRL students who were not proficient in at least one subject.
We extended our analysis of the 2008 third grade cohort to examine in-state employment rates and wages earned in 2022. We disaggregated those data by educational attainment level and third grade proficiency scores to look for differences in outcomes between groups. In this case, we saw somewhat similar patterns in wages with students who were proficient in both subjects in the third grade tending to earn higher wages. Employment rates broke slightly from that pattern, however, and seemed to be more closely related to educational attainment than third grade proficiency scores.
In 2022, employment rates were similar regardless of third grade proficiency status at almost every educational attainment level. For example, as seen in the chart below, in total approximately 77% of those completing a bachelor’s degree or higher were employed in Kentucky. Among that group, those who had been proficient in both subjects in third grade were employed in Kentucky at a rate of just below 77% while those who were not proficient in at least one subject were employed at a rate of more than 78%. The one group which seemed to deviate from this pattern were those with less educational attainment than HS or GED for whom there was a ten-percentage point gap in employment rates based on third grade proficiency status.
Patterns in wages between groups were more consistent with previous findings. At four educational attainment levels (Bachelor’s or Higher, Associate, High School/GED, and Less than HS/GED) median wages were clearly higher for students who were proficient in both subjects. Wages at the Some College attainment level were slightly higher for students who were proficient in both subjects. In one case, for those with a Certificate/Diploma, wages were actually higher for individuals who were not proficient in at least one subject in third grade.
While this study has focused on education and workforce outcomes, there is a broad range of evidence8 which indicates that academic outcomes in third grade are related to a host of other key life events and milestones. By leveraging other data sources in the KLDS we could provide insight into how outcomes for Kentucky’s third graders are related to involvement in the corrections system and enrollment in public benefits like SNAP or TANF. Initial exploratory analyses, displayed in the table below, indicate that third grade proficiency scores do seem to have a relationship to involvement in corrections and enrollment in public benefits in Kentucky. However, more work needs to be done to understand these relationships and to identify other outcomes for which data exist in the KLDS and which would be important to understand. In future studies, KYSTATS intends to engage with key partners to continue the study of the relationship between third grade proficiency and outcomes across the cradle to career continuum.
Previous research and data from the KLDS show that third grade proficiency and poverty have long term associations with educational proficiency and attainment. Lack of reading and math proficiency in third grade can be a predictor for outcomes later in life. By leveraging the KLDS to study the long-term outcomes of four cohorts of Kentucky third graders (from 2008-2011), we found the following:
1https://ies.ed.gov/ncee/rel/Products/Region/pacific/Ask-A-REL/70038
2https://assets.aecf.org/m/resourcedoc/AECF-Early_Warning_Full_Report-2010.pdf
3The
Kentucky Core Content Test (KCCT) was in use during this time as the state
assessment.
4https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s12187-020-09782-0
5https://nces.ed.gov/blogs/nces/post/free-or-reduced-price-lunch-a-proxy-for-poverty
6https://assets.aecf.org/m/resourcedoc/AECF-DoubleJeopardy-2012-Full.pdf
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